Can Nifty50 Hold 17,200 For Now? Check Out Market Cues, Key Technical Signals, Important Levels To Track

Indian equity benchmarks managed to halt a three-day losing streak in a choppy session on Monday, helped by a recovery in financial, auto and metal shares. The Nifty50 reclaimed the 17,200 mark, having found support — once again — at 17,000.

Globally, the focus remained on crude oil, the Russia-Ukraine war and COVID-caused restrictions in China.

What do the charts suggest for Dalal Street now?

The Nifty50 has formed a small-bodied positive candle on the daily chart with a long lower shadow, suggesting the formation of a bullish hammer type pattern, according to Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
“However, with the index having moved within a narrow range for the past few sessions, such a hammer pattern amid rangebound movement could be less predictive. Market action signals the emergence of the emergence from the lower end of the range,” he said. (Check out key factors likely to influence market)

Time to focus on specific stocks

The 50-scrip index yet again found support at its 200-day simple moving average near 17,000, and bounced sharply to close above its 50-day simple moving average, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities.

Period (No. of days) Simple moving average Signal
5 17,231.8 Bearish
10 17,107.3 Bullish
20 16,766.1 Bullish
50 17,172.3 Bullish
100 17,332.6 Bearish
200 17,043.7 Bullish

However, he is of the view that the broader texture of the market continues to be non-directional. “In the near future, as long as the index holds 17,100, it is likely to retest 17,325-17,400 levels, but below it, it could face further weakness till 17,000-16,950,” he said.

Here are key things to know about the market before the March 29 session:

SGX Nifty

At 7:34 am on Tuesday, Singapore Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures — an early indicator of the Nifty50 index — were up 115 points or 0.7 percent at 17,394.5, suggesting a gap-up start ahead on Dalal Street.

global markets

Equities in other Asian markets jumped tracking strong gains on Wall Street overnight amid optimism on the first peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in more than two weeks. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.7 percent in early hours.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up 0.6 percent, China’s Shanghai Composite 0.3 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 0.8 percent, and South Korea’s KOSPI and Singapore’s Straits Times 0.4 percent each.

S&P 500 futures edged 0.1 percent higher. On Monday, the three main Wall Street indices rose 0.3-1.3 percent as a jump in Tesla overshadowed weakness in energy and banking stocks.

Crude oil prices came down by around $8 a barrel. Brent crude was at $112.5 a barrel and WTI crude was at $106 a barrel.

What to expect on Dalal Street

HDFC Securities’ Shetti believes the 50-scrip index’s short-term trend remains rangebound. “A sustainable upmove could only occur above 17,500, which could then open upside targets of around 17,600-17,800 in the near term,” he said.

“The Nifty has entered a consolidation mode last week… The overall structure suggests that the consolidation can continue in the range of 17,000-17,500,” said Gaurav Ratnaparkhi, Head of Technical Research, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

To traders: He suggests any dip towards 17,000 to be viewed as buying opportunities.

Levels to watch out for

Sachin Gupta, AVP-Research at Choice Broking, pointed out the following levels:

Index Support Resistance
Nifty50 17,000 17,450
Nifty Bank 35,200 36,300

FII/DII activity

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold Indian shares worth Rs 801.4 crore on Monday, though domestic institutional investors (DIIs) saved the day yet again by making net purchases of Rs 1,161.7 crore, according to provisional exchange data.

Exchange data shows that the maximum call open interest is accumulated at the strike price of 18,000, with 2.1 lakh contracts, and the next at 17,500, with 1.2 lakh contracts. The maximum put open interest is at 16,500, with 1.3 lakh contracts, and 16,000, with 1.2 lakh contracts each.

This hints at major resistance at 17,500 before the 18,000 hurdle and meaningful support at 16,500.

Long build-up

Here are five stocks that saw an increase in open interest as well as price:

Symbol Current OI CMP Price change (%) OI change (%)
ABB 1,79,250 1,999.20 0.44% 19.25%
PVR 24,83,107 1,888.60 3.47% 17.85%
CIPLA 75,88,100 1,021.40 0.36% 15.14%
NMDC 4,72,08,200 162.2 3.15% 10.23%
AUBANK 19,28,000 1,223.85 1.02% 9.75%

Long unwinding

Symbol Current OI CMP Price change (%) OI change (%)
M&MFI 2,72,52,000 158.4 -0.28% -18.39%
ESCORT 17,86,400 1,632.80 -1.97% -14.90%
INTELLECT 9,14,250 859.5 -0.27% -14.60%
AMARAJABAT 46,04,000 544.5 -2.23% -13.90%
IGL 1,25,08,375 367.25 -0.18% -13.63%

(Decrease in open interest as well as price)

Short-covering

Symbol Current OI CMP Price change (%) OI change (%)
APLLTD 18,85,100 759.6 0.27% -15.86%
CUMINSIND 16,49,400 1,111.20 2.12% -14.51%
IOC 3,26,95,000 120.2 1.05% -14.23%
ABFRL 93,70,400 299.05 1.46% -13.18%
HONAUT 7,785 38,943.45 1.23% -10.21%

(Increase in price and decrease in open interest)

Symbol Current OI CMP Price change (%) OI change (%)
PIIND 15,80,500 2,765 -1.10% 26.72%
BATAINDIA 12,79,850 1,928.70 -0.55% 22.78%
MFSL 18,97,350 706.5 -3.88% 21.99%
NAUKRI 13,76,000 4,403.55 -2.37% 14.98%
PIDILITIND 22,02,000 2,410.70 -2.16% 12.16%

(Increase in open interest and decrease in price)

A total of 18 stocks on the BSE 500 hit 52-week highs:

  • ADANIENT
  • ADANITRANS
  • ATGL
  • CHALET
  • CUMINSIND
  • DELTACORP
  • EIHOTELE
  • GNFC
  • GSFC
  • GUJALKALI
  • HINDALCO
  • LEMONTREE
  • MAHLIFE
  • MINDACORP
  • SUPPETRO
  • TATAELXSI
  • VEDL
  • VIPIND
  • 52-week lows

    The following stocks hit 52-week lows:

  • AARTIDRUGS
  • AAVAS
  • BAJAJCON
  • CASTROIND
  • CEATLTD
  • DBL
  • EMAMILTD
  • FDC
  • GODREJAGRO
  • GODREJIND
  • GUJGAS
  • HONAUT
  • MAHABANK
  • MFSL
  • PGHL
  • TASTYBIT
  • THYROCARE
  • VAIBHAVGBL
  • The India VIX — also known as the fear index — eased 3.5 percent to settle at 22.6 on Monday. Last month, Russia’s move to invade Ukraine had pushed the gauge to a 20-month high of almost 34.

    (Edited by : Abhishek Jha)

    First Published: IST

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